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Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital said that SpaceX is trading at a “silly” valuation and is not sustainable.
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Yusko says capital is likely to shift from overvalued AI equities to Bitcoin and gold, possibly spurred by a correction as early as the third or fourth quarter.
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He compared SpaceX’s IPO structure to Dogecoin, citing its low share float and roughly $2 trillion valuation as mathematically incapable of justifying a 10x return.
Bitcoin (BTC) remains way undervalued relative to fair value, while SpaceX (SPCX) is trading at a “silly” and unsustainable valuation, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital said on Friday.
Yusko said in a Cointelegraph interview he expects capital to rotate out of overvalued artificial intelligence (AI) equities and into Bitcoin and gold, possibly triggered by a correction in AI-related stocks as early as the third or fourth quarter. He singled out Anthropic (ANTHZZX), OpenAI (OPEAZZX) and SpaceX, saying that their valuations relative to their power to generate earnings were “beyond silly.”
SpaceX Compared To Dogecoin
He was critical of Elon Musk’s SpaceX IPO approach, likening it to Dogecoin (DOGE) and Musk’s previous approach with Tesla (TSLA). SpaceX made it into the index with about 4% of shares floated, not making any money, and Yusko said the deal was a way for Musk and early investors to get exit liquidity from retail investors. To justify a 10x return, SpaceX would have to achieve about half of projected U.S. GDP in 10 years, given its roughly $2 trillion valuation, a scenario he called mathematically implausible.
“To me, SpaceX is the equivalent of Dogecoin. Mark Cuban and Elon Musk own most of the coins, and then there’s this cult of people that own it and think it’s worth something, but it’s not worth anything.”
— Mark Yusko, managing director of Morgan Creek Capital
Comparing the crypto market to SpaceX, Yusko said he does not expect a crypto-market unwinding on the scale of past equity corrections. Leverage in crypto markets has already been flushed out between last October and February, he argued. “You’re starting at 2 trillion. It’s impossible… you’re saying that SpaceX, which is going to 10x is going to be half of U.S. GDP,” said Yusko.
Bitcoin’s Fair Value
Yusko said he has been buying Bitcoin every week since February and would like to continue until October, using the model of analyst Tim Peterson based on Metcalfe’s law, which he said currently values Bitcoin between $105,000 and $108,000. Much higher than the current trading level for BTC. “So we’ve been buying a little bit every week since February, and we’ll continue to do that… probably through October or so,” said Yusko.
